Windows Vista:  Will have a mild start, but will slowly progress throughout the year.  I think a lot of people will simply take the opportunity to buy a new PC this year and that is how they will obtain Vista.

I'd say I agree with you for the most part.  Vista will be adopted slowly but surely.  Those that must have bleeding edge will get it, along with those that buy new PCs that come pre-loaded with it, but the bulk of the Wintel computer users will wind up sticking with what they have until they must upgrade or until they have to get a new computer for work/school, etc.

 

My own prediction is that the costs associated with moving to Vista, along with associated copy protections, rights (mis-)management and other restrictions will be driving forces behind helping Linux become more mainstream and more accepted.  Rather than spending lots of cash and getting utterly frustrated with having to upgrade components on their systems to get the best performance and latest and greatest features, people will try out variations of Linux to maintain web surfing systems and systems running office suites (such as OpenOffice) for their computing needs while making use of ever more prevalent gaming systems for entertainment needs.

Thanks to Microsoft's Xbox 360, Sony's PS3 and the Nintendo Wii consumers will increasingly use those boxes for playing games, leaving behind the idea of spending hundreds, if not thousands of dollars to keep their PCs capable of running the latest and greatest games.  While games like World of Warcraft will continue to keep some PC users entertained, the latest and greatest next generation games will find homes on the console systems, use the multiplayer gaming inherent on those systems and leave PC gaming relatively stagnant as consumers hold off on purchasing new video cards, processors, more memory and more disk space.

1 - A significant increase in High Definition component development and sales (TV's, Vista Home premium or Ultimate based home computer systems, and various service providers and programs).

2 - A trend towards making home technology an 'all-in-one' system, whether from Microsoft, Apple, or other emerging alternatives. I suspect this will be something that consumers will consider and probably plan to accomplish in the next 3 years based on continued advertisement of the technology.

3 - Improvement in hand-held devices that can deliver phone, e-mail, music, and images. I suspect that next holiday season will be full of new improved devices that can actually deliver high quality content here.

4 - Service based technology will become the standard.

Good question, ID.

My own prediction is that the costs associated with moving to Vista, along with associated copy protections, rights (mis-)management and other restrictions will be driving forces behind helping Linux become more mainstream and more accepted.

I also agree with what you said about Vista, but I have to disagree about Linux.  Most people don't even know what linux is, and linux still isn't ready for prime time by a long shot.

 

I also agree with what you said about Vista, but I have to disagree about Linux. Most people don't even know what linux is, and linux still isn't ready for prime time by a long shot.

It seems the price of Vista is/has been the major stumbling block for many PC Users ....and yeah, I have to agree with your predictions and comment on Linux there, ID. I'd never heard of Linux until reading about it here in the WC forums, and then I was a bit iffy about something as complex as an OS being free and not supporting a lot of mainstream apps. It very well may be quite a stable and functional OS, but I can well imagine quite a few people would be dissuaded from switching to Linux for these very reasons.

It's rumoured here in Oz that new PC's with Vista pre-installed will be $2400 plus - as opposed to an iMac with Leopard pre-installed from $1999 - so I can believe it when the guy at our local Apple store says that his sales have jumped dramatically since its release. As it is, the official price for Vista Ultimate here in Oz is $754, so it may be that a $999 mini Mac with Leopard pre-installed (that can dual boot XP) could be better computing value.

World of Warcraft will be ported to run on several cell phones.

Eight WoW addicts will be killed while fighting traffic and kobolds at the same time.

The subsequent debate over natural selection will force Bush to declare martial law in 12 states and Puerto Rico, while continuing to deny the entropy at work in his own gene pool.

Re: Linux making a move.

I see 2 problems with that. One is Microsoft (who has fought that beast and won?) and two is no Unifying force behind it. It will remain the domain of the hobbyists. But as long as it and OSX are around, it should at least keep microsoft at the ouch and not obscene price level.

I forsee

1. Stardock will finally create the highly antisipated, free pizza button for PC, one click brings a piping hot fresh pizza to your door..

2.M.S will aquire linux in a hostile takeover, and subsequently fire Lucy and Charlie brown. Sally will be quite upset since she has loved Linux since before he first run with a set of keys...

3.Sources will finally reveal that the reason cell phones get smaller every year is because its easyer for Driving users to fit their heads up their.... with a smaller phone.

4. Our beloved Paul will inherently make a typo and shut down the net for 2 weeks..as folks world wide run in panic buying up food stocks and beer, to party up while waiting for the end of days...

#5 HG_Eliminator may finally, not kill off a thread by posting in it............  

1. Stardock will finally create the highly antisipated, free pizza button for PC, one click brings a piping hot fresh pizza to your door..

Arrrggg! That be the technology we be lookin for on the HMS Starkers!  

i find HD to be a buzzword that appeals to the uninformed, but sales of anything with "HD" in front of it will sell more this year.

Hi-def etch-a-sketch!

I think that that, as others have said, Vista will be slow to adoption as most users get it with a new PC purchase.
I don't see Vista driving many people to Linux. I think this year we will see a splintering in the Linux community following the Novell/MS agreements. I think that the more commercial versions of Linux will gain market share as more servers are moved to a Linux OS, and more corporations move to a Citrix type of thin-client network, with the clients running a Suse or Redhat OS.
I'm looking forward that Pizza delivery button, though!

My own prediction is that the costs associated with moving to Vista, along with associated copy protections, rights (mis-)management and other restrictions will be driving forces behind helping Linux become more mainstream and more accepted.

I think you might be right. That, and the fact that Linux is becoming more and more user friendly.

think this year we will see a splintering in the Linux community following the Novell/MS agreements.

Thats an interesting observation.  I have already seen some of that in the linux communities, but how far it will go is the question now.

As Dr. Guy said, there is no unifying force behind the Linux community, at least not one strong enough to give it the focus and purpose it needs to keep it together over internal differences.
I think that the Linux product has matured enough to go head to head with MS in many arenas, and there's enough $$ to be made that the bigger players (read Novell, Mandriva, Redhat) look like they're set to compete to be the "face" that the Linux community has been lacking.